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New Mexico Senate Race Looks Good for Democrats

From the beginning of the year, New Mexico has been viewed as one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a Senate seat from the Republicans, and the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state does nothing to challenge that assumption.

Democrat Tom Udall now leads Republican Steve Pearce 55% to 41%. This is the sixth time in seven polls that Udall has enjoyed a double-digit lead. Last month, Pearce closed to within seven points, but even then Udall attracted support from a majority of New Mexico voters.

Udall and Pearce are seeking to replace retiring Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican who has been in the Senate since 1973. Both candidates chose to leave the U.S. House of Representatives to compete for the open seat.

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Udall attracts support from 86% of Democrats and 50% of unaffiliated voters. Pearce wins the vote from 82% of Republicans and 42% of those not affiliated with either major party.

Udall leads by 27 among women but trails by two among men (see full demographic crosstabs). This gender gap is similar to the national numbers for the presidential race. This morning, (Thursday), Rasmussen Reports noted that Obama had an 18-point lead among women but trailed by five among men.

Udall earns favorable reviews from 56% of the state’s voters, while Pearce gets positive ratings from 43%.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Udall a % chance of winning the New Mexico Senate race. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat, earns good or excellent ratings from 47% of voters in New Mexico, while 18% say he is doing a poor job.

New results for the presidential race in New Mexico will be released at 5 p.m. Eastern today.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

New Mexico Safe Democratic

Latest RR Poll

RR Poll Avg.

RR Mkts.

In Trade

2002 Results

Pearce (R)

41%

40%

65%

Udall (D)

56%

56%

35%

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology


New Mexico Trends: Udall vs. Pearce

Date

Udall

Pearce

10/28/2008

56%

41%

10/13/2008

57%

37%

10/01/2008

55%

41%

09/08/2008

51%

44%

08/20/2008

51%

41%

07/24/2008

59%

34%

06/18/2008

58%

30%

05/14/2008

53%

37%

04/08/2008

54%

40%


Favorable Ratings for Senate Candidates in New Mexico

 

Pearce

Udall

Very Favorable

27%

38%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

20%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

16%

Very Unfavorable

27%

24%

Not Sure

4%

3%


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.